Bergstrom on Virulence Changes

Matt Ridley suggests that perhaps lockdowns prevent SARS-CoV-2 from evolving into a less virulent form. Carl Bergstrom is skeptical. He points out that various pathogens remain quite destructive. And the myxoma virus in rabbits became less virulent but then more so. He summarizes, “Virulence evolution is not a simple, predictable, one-way trajectory.” He adds, “The really bad things that COVID-19 does to people happen (1) only in a small subset of people and (2) after most or all of the transmission has already taken place.” His thread offers much more detail.

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